Altagamma is the global landmark for the understanding of the luxury market. Every year the Foundation releases eight researches conducted in partnership with some of the most prestigious international partners.
The luxury markets are analysed by looking at demand and supply with specific in-depth analysis and forecasts on consumption, consumer profiling, digital, retail and specific product category.
The access to the reports is reserved to Altagamma Companies. Abstracts are available in the press releases area.
Forecast on the Worldwide Personal Luxury Goods Industry in 2019, according to the main analysts. Apparel and Art de la Table are expected to grow slightly higher than November forecasts. The highest growth rate is expected for Accessories: +7%. Beauty products and hard luxury are forecast to grow steadily.
The global personal luxury goods market reached a “new normal” pattern of growth, following back-to-back years of strong performance in 2017 and 2018. In 2018, 6 percent global growth (at a constant exchange rate) led to €260 billion in sales, which is expected to balloon to €271-276 billion in 2019, registering an expected 4 percent to 6 percent growth at constant exchange rates
18.5 million elite consumers (4% of the total) account for 30% of luxury consumption in the world (€920 billion in 2018). The Second-Hand Market and Collaborations between brands are the new trends. Good news for ‘Made In Italy’ whose positive reputation has grown compared with that of French products.
While digital technology opens the door to new protagonists and new formats, competition for the most attractive locations remains high with advantages for mega brands and strong pressure on costs, investments and sales.
The personal luxury goods market recorded a solid performance in 2018, with a rise of 2% in Euros, and 6% at constant rates: so growth was unchanged growth in percentage real terms compared to the previous year.
With a 5% growth forecast for next year, personal luxury goods consumption are confirmed in constant growth, regardless a series of political and economic exogenous factors that has become more threatening in the second half of 2018 and may have a further impact at the end of next year
After a positive 2017, in the first nine months of 2018, Tax-Free Shopping in Europe recorded a downturn in sales (6%), attributable primarily to the appreciation of the Euro against the main currencies, particularly the dollar and the Chinese renminbi. Against a fall in the number of transactions, the Global Blue figures however registered an increaseof 2% in the value of the average European receipt.
According to the Altagamma Monitor of the World Markets, the global market of high-end personal goodswill reach €276-281 billion in 2018, with a constant growth rate of between 6% and 8%. “China” and “millennial state of mind” are the key words of the positive trend of a healthy market, which will reach a total of €390 billion in 2025, growing at a mean annual rate of 4-5%.
The Altagamma Consensus 2018 indicates significantly higher consumption growth forecasts (5%-6%) than the October 2017 forecasts. With regard to the product categories, a considerable if not unexpected growth forecast for leather bags, shoes and accessories (+7%)is recorded. The 7% growth of jewels and watches is more unexpected. Apparel is expected to grow by +3%, an average between the excellent performance of more creative collections and the more traditional collections, the latter growing only slightly. A growth rate of +3% is forecast for fragrances and cosmetics, more than in past years.
The market of the fifteen most important wine drinking countriesis worth €160 billion, with the Top Winessegment representing approximately 7% with a value of €11 billion.The United States represents the largest market at €36 billion (with top wines constituting 9%), while in Europe Italy stands in second place at €13.1 billion (top at 8%), behind France (€22.5 billion, top at 15%) and after Spain (€8.7 billion, top at 5%).
The study confirmed the strategic pre-eminence of the on-line market: the digital distribution of luxury products has now reached an inflection point, beyond which we expect a rapid acceleration in growth. Physical retail is swiftly becoming a concept of the past, which needs to be built into the development of digital technologies.
30% of total luxury consumption around the world (€900bn, +6%) is made by only 18 million elite consumers. Chinese and millennials are the main factors behind both current growth and that estimated in 2024 (€1,260bn). The key players are nouveaux riches from emerging countries and the young inhabitants of the world’s great metropolises.