Period of moderate growth for global consumption of personal luxury goods. The 2016 forecasts are less positive compared with six months ago but no dip is expected. Growth for Japan and Europe, Asia and America stable. The best-performing categories are once again Leather Accessories and Beauty.
According to the Altagamma Monitor on the Global Markets study, carried out by Bain & Company in association with Altagamma, in 2015 the global personal luxury goods market was worth €253 billion, up +13% at current rates (+1% at constant rates). The last quarter was particularly difficult both in the US, where there was a slowdown in purchases by local consumers, and in Europe where the Paris terrorist attacks had a severe impact on Christmas shopping in the French city by both locals and tourists (mainly from Asia).
In the first quarter of 2016 the market maintained the 2015 trend (+1% at both current and constant rates), showing an overall slowdown in intercontinental tourist flows due both to the partial rebalancing of price differentials and the terrorist attacks in Europe. The main trends:
- After 3 years of decline, Mainland China is expected to record positive growth thanks to an initial “repatriation” of luxury good spending by Chinese consumers.
- Europe is enjoying positive growth, tourist flows are down but local consumption is recovering.
- The performance of the Americas is impacted by the strong dollar and the uncertain consumer confidence typical of an election year.
- Although slowing down compared with 2015, Japan remains the fastest growing market thanks to tourist flows from China.
- A constant trend is forecast for the rest of Asia albeit with differing performances in individual countries: Korea and South-East Asia are growing but Hong Kong and Macau are still struggling badly.
The Altagamma Consensus, drafted this year together with 27 international analysts, has backtracked slightly on the forecasts for 2016 made in October:
- Contrary to the forecasts made in October 2015, zero growth is now predicted for Asia (0% vs. +2%), North America (0% vs. 3.0%) and Latin America (0% vs. +1%)
- Japan will enjoy strong growth (+5%, confirmed), while growth will be more moderate in Europe (+2% vs. 4%) and even more so in the Middle East and the Rest of the World (+1% vs. +3%)
- Accessories and Beauty Products are confirmed as the segments in rudest health (+4%)
- The forecast growth for clothing is more moderate (+1% vs. 3%)
- No growth is expected for Art de la Table (0% vs. +2%) and Hard Luxury (0% vs. -+3%).
